Sunday, June 21, 2009

What future for Crude?


Update: I am goood. Chart


(click to enlarge images)


After a near 50% run-up in crude it appears a pullback in in the offing. We're tipped off by the break of a triangle on the daily chart providing us a nice early short entry with relatively tight stops.

First off, the Stop Loss value for a short entry would be the forging of a new high at $74. If Crude can push above that the breakdown has failed.

Providing further weakness continues, we can estimate where Crude may find support using the above two charts. The most likely and obvious level come in around $62-63. There we find a convergence of technical support in the channel line, the 50 DMA and former resistance. Further evidence comes in the form of Fibonacci confluenceat $60.5 . The $55 level has more significant support but requires a hard departure from the channel and a break of important DMA's. Possible but not likely, at least not all at once.

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